The $122 Million Primary: How Texas Became the Most Expensive Senate Race Before a Single General Election Vote

Before a single general election ballot has been cast, the 2026 Texas Senate race has already become the most expensive Senate primary in American history. With over $122 million in total advertising spending as of late February, the contest has surpassed Arizona's 2022 Senate primary — which held the previous record at $109.5 million — and shows no signs of slowing down.

The numbers are staggering even by Texas standards. This year's primary has seen 60% more spending than the 2020 Texas Senate primary and general election combined. That race, in which incumbent John Cornyn won by nearly 10 points, saw $74.2 million in total ad spending across both contests. The 2026 primary alone has eclipsed it by $48 million — with months of campaigning still ahead.

A Three-Way Republican War

The Republican primary is where the vast majority of the money has gone. GOP spending accounts for $95.1 million — 78% of the total — driven by a fierce three-way contest between incumbent Senator John Cornyn, Congressman Wesley Hunt, and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton.

Cornyn has received $69 million in total ad support — 57% of all spending in the race. His campaign and associated victory funds have spent $15.1 million directly, but the bulk of his support comes from outside groups: Texans for a Conservative Majority ($23.3 million), Lone Star Freedom Project ($17.8 million), and One Nation ($10.9 million).

The GOP primary alone — at $95.1 million — would rank as the second most expensive Senate primary in history if considered independently. If none of the candidates receive more than 50% of the vote, the top two finishers advance to a runoff on May 26. Recent polling suggests Wesley Hunt has drawn enough support to prevent any candidate from reaching that threshold, likely setting up a Cornyn-Paxton runoff that would push spending even higher.

Ads Beyond Texas

One of the most revealing details about the race is where the ads are running. Republican primary advertising has extended far beyond Texas media markets, with ad buys targeting Washington, D.C., New York City, and — notably — West Palm Beach, Florida, home to Mar-a-Lago.

The strategy is transparent: candidates are spending millions to reach an audience of one. President Trump has not endorsed in the contest, and the Mar-a-Lago-targeted ads suggest that each candidate believes a presidential nod could be decisive. It's a remarkable illustration of how modern political advertising can be simultaneously mass-market and hyper-targeted.

The Democratic Side

While spending considerably less than Republicans, Democratic advertisers have put $27.5 million into the primary. State Representative James Talarico leads with $20.8 million in total ad support — his campaign has spent $14.8 million directly, supplemented by $7.2 million from Lone Star Rising PAC. Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett has received $4.6 million in total support.

The Democratic primary has not been without its own tensions. Lone Star Rising PAC, which backs Talarico, aired an ad attacking Crockett by accusing her of being supported by Republicans who believe she would be an easier opponent in the general election — a sharp intra-party attack that signals how seriously Democrats are taking the seat.

Why Leadership Is Worried

The spending frenzy reflects genuine anxiety at the highest levels of both parties. The Cook Political Report rates the Texas Senate general election as "Likely R" — but that assessment comes with a significant caveat about the Republican nominee.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune recently acknowledged the stakes publicly: "Honestly, if you look at the polling in a general election setting, I don't think it's outside the realm of possibility that the seat flips, depending on who the Democrats nominate."

That statement from the Republican Senate leader — conceding that a Texas Senate seat could potentially flip — would have been unthinkable a decade ago. It reflects a broader reality: in the era of unlimited outside spending, even "safe" seats can become competitive when the right combination of candidates, money, and national mood converge.

What It Means for 2026

The Texas Senate race is a leading indicator of what the 2026 midterms will look like nationally. AdImpact projects total political ad spending will reach $10.8 billion for the cycle — the most expensive midterm in history. If a single primary in a "Likely R" state can generate $122 million, the competitive races in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and other battlegrounds will likely see spending that dwarfs anything in previous cycles.

Some Republicans have expressed concern that if Cornyn loses renomination, the party could be forced to spend hundreds of millions of dollars defending the seat in the general election — resources that might otherwise be deployed in genuinely competitive battleground states. The irony is not lost on strategists: the money spent fighting within the party may ultimately weaken it for the fights that matter most.

Whether the race heads to a runoff or transitions directly into a general election, one thing is certain: the $122 million already spent is just the beginning. By November 2026, the Texas Senate race could become the most expensive congressional contest in American history.

Sources: AdImpact cycle-in-review data (as of February 27, 2026), Cook Political Report, Senate Majority Leader John Thune (public remarks). All spending figures represent total ad support including candidate, party, and outside group spending.